Essays on the far future of intelligence

The limits of intelligence · part 1 of 4 · by Bill Guan

One kilogram could out-think every AI chip on Earth

The big question

Is there a ceiling on how smart anything can get, and if there is, how far above us does it sit?

Physics has a surprisingly exact answer. You're about to see the top speed of thought, worked out from first principles, and how far above every brain and computer on Earth it sits.

Start with something you can hold. Pick up a bag of sugar: that's one kilogram of matter, and if you could rearrange it into the best computer the laws of physics allow, it would out-think every AI chip on Earth combined, by a margin that is almost impossible to picture.

Your guess first

If physics were the only limit, how much faster than all of Earth's AI chips could that one kilogram compute?

Energy sets the speed limit

WHO CAN THINK FASTER?1 kg×1028 one kilogram atthe physics limitevery AI chipon Earth, 2026about 6×1022 ops/sec?!

Every step a computer takes means flipping some piece of matter from one state to another, like a switch going from off to on. Quantum mechanics caps how fast anything can flip, and the cap depends on how much energy it has 12.

In 2000 the MIT physicist Seth Lloyd pushed that rule as far as it goes. He imagined a laptop weighing one kilogram, gave it every joule that mass can hold through E = mc² (about 9×1016 joules), and worked out its top speed: 5.4×1050 operations per second 1.

Now compare that with what we've actually built. Epoch AI estimates the world's AI chips add up to about 31.6 million top-of-the-line Nvidia H100s' worth of computing as of September 2026 3, and each H100 manages roughly 2×1015 operations per second 4. Multiply them out and the whole planet's AI fleet runs at about 6×1022, which leaves 28 powers of ten of empty room above it.

THE LADDER OF THINKING SPEED1020 1030 1040 1050 YOUR BRAIN ≈ ONE TOP AI CHIPabout 1015 operations per secondALL AI CHIPS ON EARTH, 2026about 6×1022 1 KG AT THE PHYSICS LIMIT1.4 to 5.4×1050 (Bremermann, Lloyd)28 EMPTY RUNGSnothing we have builtreaches any of thesedoubling every 2 years,the climb takes ~190 yearseach rung = 10× more operations per second

Lloyd wasn't the first to find a ceiling like this. In 1962 the mathematician Hans Bremermann worked out a similar limit of about 1.4×1050 bits per second for every kilogram of computer 5. Two different routes landing in the same place is usually a good sign the physics is solid.

Memory has a ceiling too

Speed is half of a computer, and memory is the other half. Its limit comes from entropy, which counts how many distinct arrangements a lump of matter can take, and Lloyd's kilogram could store about 2×1031 bits 1. Max Tegmark estimates your synapses hold "roughly 100 terabytes' worth of information" 6, so one ultimate kilogram could hold the memories of about 27 thousand trillion people.

The ultimate laptop is a fireball

SAME KILOGRAM, SAME LITERan ordinary laptoppush tothe limitthe ultimate laptopa plasma at abouta billion degrees!5×1050 ops/sec on 2×1031 bits

Here's the catch, and it's my favorite part of the paper. To run that fast and use all that memory, the laptop has to turn essentially all of its matter into energy. Lloyd describes the result as "a plasma at a billion degrees Kelvin: the laptop's memory looks like a thermonuclear explosion or a little piece of the Big Bang!" 1

He admits, dryly, that "packaging issues alone make it unlikely that this limit can be obtained" 1. The point of the exercise is to measure how much room exists above us, and the answer is an absurd amount.

The wall we actually hit is heat

HOW MUCH HEAT PER STEP?best supercomputertoday (2026)1.4×10−11 joules5,000,000,000×room left to improveLANDAUER'S FLOOR2.9×10−21 joules per bit erasedreversible computing coulddig below it, in principle

Real chips run into a much closer limit. In 1961 Rolf Landauer showed that erasing a single bit of information always releases a tiny puff of heat 7, about 3×10−21 joules at room temperature. It's a cost no computer that throws information away can avoid, and physicists finally measured it directly in 2012 8.

Today's machines sit far above that floor. The most efficient supercomputer in the world, KAIROS in Toulouse, does about 73 billion operations per watt 9, which works out to roughly 1.4×10−11 joules per operation, about five billion times the Landauer cost. That comparison exaggerates the gap a little, since one operation flips many bits, but the room left over is still enormous.

There's even a known way under the floor. Charles Bennett showed in 1973 that a computer which never throws information away could, in principle, spend far less energy per step than Landauer's cost 10, an idea called reversible computing. It has started to leave the blackboard: a startup called Vaire Computing tested a chip in August 2025 that "drew around 30 percent less energy than a regular chip performing the same computation" 11.

Your brain is a 20-watt marvel

Your brain does everything it does on about 20 watts, even though it's "just 2% of the body's weight, but 20% of its metabolic load" 12. Joe Carlsmith's 2020 review for Open Philanthropy concluded that 1015 operations per second is "more likely than not" enough to match it 13, which happens to be about what one top AI chip does today.

Evolution built that under tough constraints. A brain has to fit inside a skull and run on food, and its signals crawl along nerve fibers at around 120 meters per second, constraints a machine simply doesn't share.

How much room is left above us

My assessment: physics says nothing about when machines will out-think us, and raw speed is only one ingredient, since the software matters enormously. What physics does tell us is that nothing in nature parks the ceiling anywhere near human level. Between a 20-watt brain and Lloyd's billion-degree kilogram there are dozens of powers of ten of room, so whatever thinking looks like a thousand years from now, it will have an almost unimaginable amount of space to grow into.

Sources

  1. Seth Lloyd, "Ultimate physical limits to computation," Nature (2000). arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/9908043
  2. Norman Margolus and Lev Levitin, "The maximum speed of dynamical evolution," Physica D 120, 188 (1998). arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/9710043
  3. Epoch AI, "Scaling Our Global AI Data Center Research" (2026-09-16). epoch.ai/latest/scaling-ai-data-centers-research
  4. NVIDIA H100 datasheet (FP8: 3,958 teraFLOPS with sparsity, about half without). www.nvidia.com/en-us/data-center/h100/
  5. Gennady Gorelik, "Bremermann's limit and cGh-physics" (2009), citing H. J. Bremermann (1962). arxiv.org/abs/0910.3424
  6. Max Tegmark, Life 3.0 (2017), excerpt via Science Friday. www.sciencefriday.com/articles/tegmark/
  7. Rolf Landauer, "Irreversibility and heat generation in the computing process," IBM Journal of Research and Development 5, 183 (1961).
  8. Antoine Bérut et al., "Experimental verification of Landauer's principle linking information and thermodynamics," Nature 483, 187 (2012). www.nature.com/articles/nature10872
  9. TOP500, Green500 list, June 2026. top500.org/lists/green500/green500-june-2026/
  10. Charles Bennett, "Logical reversibility of computation," IBM Journal of Research and Development 17, 525 (1973). cs.princeton.edu/courses/archive/fall04/cos576/papers/bennet…
  11. Kathryn Hulick, "This computer chip reuses energy," Science News (2025-09-23). www.sciencenews.org/article/computer-chip-reuses-energy
  12. Vijay Balasubramanian, "Brain power," PNAS 118(32) (2021). pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8364152/
  13. Joseph Carlsmith, "How much computational power does it take to match the human brain?" Open Philanthropy (2020). forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/nGQJEYp5X2pCbeweg/new-repo…