The limits of intelligence · part 2 of 4 · by Bill Guan
The densest computer physics allows is a black hole
The big question
How big can a mind get before physics starts pushing back?
Two pressures pull every mind in opposite directions. You're about to see how light sets the clock of anything that thinks and how gravity caps its memory, and following both all the way down lands you inside a black hole.
Your brain sends its signals along nerve fibers at about 120 meters per second, and that one number quietly limits how big a brain can usefully get, because a brain that grew too large would spend most of its time waiting for its own messages to arrive. Digital minds signal at close to the speed of light, which pushes that limit out enormously, and yet if you follow the logic all the way down you end up somewhere I never expected, which is inside a black hole.
Your guess first
A computer as big as the Earth sends its signals at the speed of light. How many times a second can a signal get from one side of it to the other?
About 24 times a second. Light needs about 42 milliseconds to cross the Earth, so a planet-sized mind wired at the fastest speed anything can go still has to wait for its own signals, and the wait grows with every meter it adds.
A mind thinks only as fast as a signal can cross it
Any thought that needs the whole mind to weigh in has to wait for information to travel from one side to the other. That crossing time works like a clock speed for the whole system, and it grows with size, so the same light-speed wiring that crosses a 6-centimeter chip in 0.2 nanoseconds (one tick of a 5-gigahertz clock) needs about 8.3 minutes to span the distance from the Earth to the Sun and about 100,000 years to cross the Milky Way.
Your brain plays by the same rule at a much lower speed. A signal crossing its roughly 15 centimeters at 120 meters per second takes about 1.25 milliseconds, and since its neurons peak at around 200 signals per second, that crossing fits comfortably inside one neural tick.
A computer the size of the Earth has it much worse. Each of its signals moves millions of times faster than a nerve impulse, yet light still needs about 42 milliseconds to get across, so the whole machine can coordinate itself only about 24 times a second, and stretching it to the Earth-Moon system pushes each crossing to about 1.3 seconds. That's why the first pressure on any fast mind is to stay compact.
Memory pulls the other way, toward more mass
The second pressure comes from the fact that information is physical. Every bit has to be stored in some distinguishable state of some piece of matter, and any matter with different stable states can, in principle, serve as memory. More memory means more stuff and more stuff means more mass, so a mind that wants to be both fast and knowledgeable wants to pack as much matter as possible into as small a space as possible. That works fine right up until gravity notices.
Pack in too much and it collapses into a black hole
Gravity, as general relativity describes it, sets a hard limit on how much mass you can cram into a region. Every mass has a size called its Schwarzschild radius, and once you squeeze the mass inside that radius, nothing can stop it collapsing into a black hole. The physicist Raphael Bousso puts the consequence for information bluntly: a system's "mass must be less than the mass M of a black hole of the same surface area. Otherwise, the system could not be gravitationally stable, and from the outside point of view it would already be a black hole" 1.
Jacob Bekenstein, who first found the limit on how much information a region can hold, described what goes wrong if you try to beat it by piling up more and more memory chips: "what fails is the pile itself: it would collapse under its own gravity and form a black hole before that impasse was reached" 2.
That leads to one of the strangest results in physics. The most information you can fit inside any region is set by the area of its boundary rather than its volume. Bousso gives the number: "the area of any surface limits the information content of adjacent spacetime regions, at 1.4 × 1069 bits per square meter" 1. So if you double the width of a memory bank, its volume grows eightfold while the ceiling on what it can hold grows only fourfold.
To get a feel for the scale, take a ball with a one-meter radius. The holographic bound, as this area rule is called, says it can hold at most about 1.7×1070 bits. Reaching that limit takes a black hole with a one-meter radius, which means cramming about 6.7×1026 kilograms into the ball, roughly a third of the mass of Jupiter.
The densest computer burns out in an instant
Seth Lloyd, the physicist who worked out the speed limit for a one-kilogram "ultimate laptop", took the idea to its end. He imagined compressing his one-kilogram computer down to its Schwarzschild radius, which is 1.485×10−27 meters, far smaller than a proton. In his words, it "can perform 5.4258 × 1050 operations per second" on about 3.8×1016 bits 3.
Two things about that result surprised me. First, the black-hole version stores less than the ordinary ultimate laptop, about 4×1016 bits against 2×1031, because a one-kilogram black hole is absurdly tiny and its capacity depends on its surface area. Capacity grows with the square of the mass, though, so a black hole as heavy as the Sun could hold around 1077 bits.
Second, it doesn't last. Black holes slowly radiate away their mass, and small ones go fast. Lloyd estimates "a lifetime for a 1 kilogram black hole of ≈ 10−19 seconds, during which time the hole can perform ≈ 1032 operations on its ≈ 1016 bits" 3, which works out to each bit being flipped about once every 7×10−35 seconds. How you would actually read the answer back out of the radiation is, as Lloyd admits, a question "whose answer will have to await a unified theory of quantum gravity" 3.
Anything bigger than a planet has to think in pieces
My assessment: light sets a clock and gravity sets a ceiling on density, and between them they decide what shape a really large intelligence can take. A mind can be fast or it can be big, and beyond a certain size it can't be both, which means anything much larger than a planet has to work as a federation of local minds that think quickly on their own and talk to each other slowly.
Every big mind, then, is really a society of smaller ones, each thinking fast on its own and waiting on slow letters from the others. The bigger it gets, the longer the letters take, and at the scale of the whole universe the waiting becomes almost absurd.
A mind a billion light-years across would get about ten thoughts before the expanding universe pulls it apart.
Sources
- Raphael Bousso, "The holographic principle," Reviews of Modern Physics 74, 825 (2002). arxiv.org/abs/hep-th/0203101
- Jacob Bekenstein, "Information in the Holographic Universe," Scientific American (originally August 2003). www.scientificamerican.com/article/information-in-the-hologr…
- Seth Lloyd, "Ultimate physical limits to computation," Nature (2000). arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/9908043
- Seth Lloyd, "Computational capacity of the universe," Physical Review Letters 88, 237901 (2002). arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/0110141